有声读物: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds is the fifth installment (published in 2012) in the National Intelligence Council’s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. As with previous editions, this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. It distinguishes between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain. As the diversity and complexity of various factors has grown, there is increased attention to scenarios or alternative worlds. At a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures. the contention is presented that the future is not set in stone, but is malleable, the result of an interplay among megatrends, game-changers and, above all, human agency. The ultimate goal is to encourage decisionmakers—whether in government or outside—to think and plan for the long term so that negative futures do not occur and positive ones have a better chance of unfolding. (from the Executive Summary, lightly edited for clarity) - Summary by Patrick McHaffie